The decision by the British electorate to either remain or leave the European Union has provoked one of the bitterest political battles in UK history, and as the 23rd of June ballot looms the two sides are locked into a war of words that is destined to leave neither unscathed, and indeed if there’s a bet on the EU Referendum you can make without fear is that it will do nothing for the reputation of parliament nor those that sit within it, but who should you back to win?
Brexit Odds At Betfair
- Vote on 23rd June
- Stay odds 1/6
- Leave odds 7/2
“The best argument against democracy,” Said Winston Churchill, British wartime Prime Minister and exceedingly useful quote machine, “is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” Of course that was said a while ago. These days it wouldn’t take five minutes. Thirty seconds would be enough. Sadly this isn’t because there has been some horrid lowering of intelligence levels, it’s just that the infotainment that passes for news coverage these days leaves them perilously ignorant of reality and makes you wonder which way Winnie would bet on the EU referendum if he could see this modern world.
Whilst across the pond this dumbing down has resulted in the Donald Trump candidacy, which sounds far too much like the title of a Big Bang Theory episode, a clarion symbol of all that is wrong with Democracy, in the UK the horrific truth is evidenced by the Vote Leave camp, that part of the UK gambling news coverage of their alarmist bias will manage to outweigh the manifest benefits of being in the EU, not least of which has been the sixty years in which Europeans have managed to avoid going to Belgium, digging long holes and slaughtering each other by the million for a third time.
The ease with which the campaign to leave the EU has been able to build upon the UK tabloid agenda of xenophobia, paranoia and fear-mongering mirrors the galvanized base Trump found by attacking Mexicans at the launch of his election efforts in the US. The recent immigration crisis brought on by the continuing civil wars in Syria and Iraq, neither of which Europe can entirely wash its hands of, has only made it easier for them to play on the irrational mindset of those who feel under threat both and thus bet on the EU Referendum going their way.
Brexit Supporters Disingenuous Messages Matched
“It’s a European Union of economic failure,” Insists Nigel Farage, the MEP who hates Europe and has long called for the UK to leave, “of mass unemployment and low growth.” Which is a little disingenuous, but then those leading the campaign to leave the EU are pulling out all the stops, and that ridiculous misrepresentation is the least of the silliness with the mop-topped former London Mayor Boris Johnson saying the EU deal secured by David Cameron the Prime Minister was “the biggest stitch up since the Bayeux Tapestry.” You can just guess which way he would bet on the EU Referendum.
The Leave camp has dubbed the Remain camp as being “Campaign Fear” which, given the Leave campaign is entirely centered around playing on people’s fears, is just another of those moments of preemptive political retaliation where you accuse everyone else of precisely what you’re guilty of, or term things precisely the opposite of what they actually are. You know, the sort that makes you want to take up terrorism as a hobby and look into ISIS career paths, and if you’re in the UK gambling laws of decency would force the politicians on both side to tell the truth, welcome to Earth.
“I want to show what happens to our cash every week.” Said Johnson burning a symbolic cheque for 350 million pounds, wholly failing to mention that didn’t take into account of all the money the EU gives back in various ways, whilst George Osborne the current Chancellor of the Exchequer and loyal supporter of the Remain camp claims to leave the EU would cost the UK up to 820,000 jobs and provoke a “DIY Recession”, which is almost as alarmist, and you can bet on the EU Referendum debate getting worse.
Tired Of Sports Wagers? Bet On The EU Referendum Instead!
Luckily if you’re going to bet on the EU Referendum in the same way you might bet on sports in the UK. Betfair have all the odds and the bookies have assured themselves that the vast majority of voters, far more scared of change than of the status quo, will choose to remain within the EU and the Remain camp will be gladdened by the 1/6 odds they’re currently garnering, although from the way they’re campaigning you get the feeling the campaign isn’t as convinced it’s a foregone conclusion, and, frankly, it probably isn’t.
The vote Leave crowd are getting 7/2 at Betfair, which is as good as they can expect at this stage, but with the government’s deal under closer scrutiny and open to misinterpretation at the best of times, you can expect those to shorten a fair bit, so now might be the time to bet on the EU Referendum if you’re apt to take a longshot with short odds. Of course they’ll shorten even more should something calamitous happen that captures the public eye and casts a negative light on the EU itself.
Terrorism, riots, Angela Merkel attempting to smile, anything could trigger a massive wave of sympathy for the insane concept of leaving the EU, Vladimir Putin could invade Turkey or Recep Tayyip Erdogan could just push all the Syrians into the Adriatic and let Greece deal with them, especially if he doesn’t get the deal he wants on visa free travel to the EU for his citizens. With a month to go the bet on the EU Referendum that most are making is that the vote will go ahead in circumstance of calm, not in the aftermath of something that reinforces the messages of alarmist fear that the Leave campaign are peddling, and that the UK will stay. We just have to hope that’s a winner, because the alternative is everyone losing.