The Monte Carlo Fallacy

The Gambler’s Fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy, simply put, is the belief that past events can somehow have an influence on future ones, that are absolutely different from them in reality. An example for the gambler is if a coin landed on it’s heads twice in a row, then it should land on it’s tails for the third toss. Some people believe that if a certain event already occurred a certain number of times, then this same event will happen less in the future. Other hold the converse belief, that the same event will occur more frequently in the future. They are all nuts! ... read more