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The Greens Have the Best 2021 German Election Odds to Challenge CDU/CSU

  • The Greens had a big win in Baden-Wurttemberg on 14 March
  • Despite the big hit CDU/CSU are still leading in the polls
  • SPD will unlikely bounce back soon
2021 German election odds

Germany is set to head to the polls on 26 September 2021 to elect a new Bundestag, which will then choose the next chancellor. According to most bookmakers, CDU/CSU despite recent setbacks will likely retain most seats. However, the Greens are becoming the main challengers with great 2021 German election odds to pose a threat to the ruling party. 

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Germany’s ‘super election year’ is already underway, with the first two states holding their regional elections. The next one takes place on 06 June in Sachsen-Anhalt, as per online sportsbook news in Germany. These regional votes are very crucial to measure the political temperature in the country. Then the federal election will kick off on 26 September to elect 598 members of the Bundestag.

The election of the first two states resulted in a big hit for Mrs. Merkel’s CDU/CSU ruling party. Whereas, the Greens emerged as the big winners. It is very alarming for CDU/CSU. But still, the 2021 German election odds show the ruling party will remain dominant in the Bundestag. And the opinion polls generally seem to agree.

The polls favor CDU/CSU

According to Politico’s poll of polls, CDU/CSU remains the firm favorite to win most seats in Bundestag. CDU/CSU will likely gain around 31 percent of total votes. The Greens are so far second-placed with expectations to receive 19 percent. Whereas the SDP who once ruled the country a few decades ago will get around 16 percent.

The Greens are becoming a big party

The Green Party has started the election season with a big win in Baden-Wurttemberg state. It gained 58 out of 101 total seats jumping 11 seats compared to the 2017 elections. In Rhineland-Palatinate state, the Greens stepped up from 6 seats in 2017 to 10 this year’s election. Thus, they are finally becoming a big party able to influence the shape of the next government.

However, winning at the national level is much tougher than gaining seats in these two states. Therefore, most online sportsbooks in Germany suggest the Greens will likely end up the second biggest party in the country. But, the idea of holding the majority is less likely with a value of 7 at 22BET Sportsbook.

2021 German election odds
Susanne Eisenmann – Image source: CDU Baden-Württemberg / KD Busch, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

CDU/CSU faced a big hit but will likely win most seats

The alliance between the Christian Conservative Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Chrisitan Social Union (CSU) is facing a crisis. It was hopeful to start the election year strong, but it turned the opposite. CDU/CSU lost five seats and came second in the two states. Accordingly, its leaders made no effort to sugarcoat the dim reality. CDU’s lead candidate in Baden-Wurttemberg Susanne Eisenmann said to PoliticoOne has to be honest about it, the CDU recorded a disastrous result.”

Despite all of that, CDU/CSU has a chance to gain most seats at the national level with a great value of 1.05 at 2021 German election odds. Of course, this is not guaranteed. The party has to keep seeking every single vote, especially with the rise of the Greens.

SPD will unlikely make an upset

The center-left Social Democrats (SPD) are currently sitting in third place in the polls. They have seen their popularity drop from 40 percent in 1998 to 20 percent in 2017. Will they finally bounce back in 2021? The odds suggest most likely not with a value of 26. The failure to find a proper message to resonate with the electorate is considered the main reason.

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