Super Bowl XLIX is here folks! It’s time to decide which teams and players to place bets on!
Now that we know that Super Bowl XLIX will be an even matchup between the defending champion Seattle Seahawks and the dynastic New England Patriots, we can finally tailor our betting strategies.
• Point Spread: New England by -1
• Seattle is an underdog for the second-straight year
• Bet365 has a full range of prop bets
First there’s the betting line itself (hint: oddsmakers expect the game to be close!). Then, there’s a fantastic set of props to keep you betting from opening kickoff all the way down to the final drive. Is there any doubt that Super Bowl XLIX will be one for the ages!
The Seahawks are underdogs … again
Last year the Seahawks beat the Broncos as +2.5 underdogs. Currently, oddsmakers have them as +1 underdogs against the Patriots. That’s the closest line we’ve seen at a Super Bowl since 1982, when the 49ers were favored by -1 to beat the Bengals.
This game is almost perfectly matched. The Patriots have a slightly better offense, but the Seahawks are better on defense. Both teams have Super Bowl-winning coaches, although Bill Belichick’s three victories dwarf Pete Carroll’s lone win.
The money line is 1.95/1 for the Hawks and 1.86/1 for the Patriots.
History says this game will be a blowout
The point spread is 1 and both teams received the top seed in their respective conferences. As said previously, this is a perfect matchup. If we look to the historical record of past Super Bowl’s to guide us, however, this game will not be close.
Since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978 there have been eight Super Bowls played between the top seeds from either conference. Over those eight games the average margin of victory has been a whopping 22.5 points. That includes Seattle’s 43-8 drubbing of Denver, and the 1986 game when the 49ers won 55-10, also over Denver.
Only one of those games, the 1982 bout between the Niners and Bengals, had a single-digit margin of victory. The Niners won 26-21.
It’s really difficult to imagine this game being a blowout, but history shouldn’t be ignored. If things do go that direction, it’s more likely that the Patriots will end up on top, given their more explosive offense.
Russell Wilson won’t have two bad games in a row
During Seattle’s comeback win over the Packers Wilson was abysmal, throwing a career-high four interceptions and being sacked five times. In fact, it was his worst game as a professional. In six career playoff games prior to the NFC Championship against the Packers, Wilson threw for nine touchdowns and only one interception.
Expect a bounce-back game from him. Online betting sites are taking props on which quarterback, Wilson or Brady, will throw more touchdown passes. Oddsmakers are favoring Brady, but consider putting money on Wilson.
The Patriots will score first
Regardless of which team wins, the Patriots will likely be the first to put points on the board. Why? Their offense is more explosive. With big-play threats like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Shane Vereen, the Pats tend to race up the field.
The Seahawks are arguably just as competent on offense, but they’re offense is a slow burn, not a flash in the pan. They rely on Marshawn Lynch to wear down defenses over the course of a game, something he did in full form against the Packers.
Marshawn Lynch will receive more carries than LeGarrette Blount
Blount is somewhat like a younger version of Lynch. Both played at Oregon, both are heavyset between-the-tackles bruisers, and both have put their careers at risk with bad attitudes and off-field baggage. This game looks to be a clash of titans.
During the Conference Championships Blount carried more times than Lynch, 30 to 25. But he’s unpredictable. In the previous game against Baltimore he carried three times for only one yard. If you plan to make a prop on which player will receive more carries, look up Lynch.
The Seahawks are certain to go to their bread-and-butter and try to pummel the Patriots on the ground. Expect them to force feed Lynch throughout the game. The Patriots may take the same approach, but Lynch is a safer bet.
Lynch and Gronkowski most likely to score
One of the coolest things about online and mobile betting is that you can place props on your favorite players scoring touchdowns. Online bookies like Bet365, BetVictor and Bovada think that Lynch and Gronk will lead the scoring pack.
The odds of Gronk setting foot in the end zone are 7.5/1, with teammates LeGarrette Blount and Julian Edelman coming in at 10/1 and 12/1, respectively.
On the Seattle side, Lynch is leader, with 6.5 odds of scoring. His closest teammates are Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson, both at 13/1.