According to online sportsbook news in the United States, this race is one of the closest in the country. Neither Josh Hawley nor Claire McCaskill has had a lead of more than four points in a single poll for the entire year, and that means that
the winner is destined to take the lead within the margin error.
The incumbent Clair McCaskill is a Democrat in an increasingly red state. She has survived the past two cycles in 2006 and 2012 in a state won by Trump with nearly 20 points in 2016. However, we recommend betting on US Senate elections for McCaskill to survive another term, by winning votes from undecided voters who are likely Trump supporters.
Missouri’s Political Landscape
To say that Missouri is a solidly Republican state would be missing the point, despite Donald Trump wining by 20 points. The state is a fiercely independent political landscape, where McCaskill has navigated skillfully for the past two decades. Missouri historically voted for Democrats, until three Republicans have remade the state’s map in the 1970s, and since then the Senate seat became subject to wild swings.
The political landscape of Missouri is currently divided into the Democratic base in Kansas City and St. Louis, while the rural southwest and counties stretching up the Missouri River from St. Louis to Kansas City are widely Republican. The rest of the state is independent but mostly voted for Trump in 2016.
Why should you bet on McCaskill to Retain the Seat?
Missouri’s Claire McCaskill (2.00) might be 2018’s most vulnerable Senate Democrat, according to Unibet Sportsbook. Her challenger is the state’s 38-year-old attorney general, Josh Hawley (1.72). Yet three detrimental factors could tilt the balance in McCaskill’s favour.
According to online sportsbook news in the United States, Missouri is the top target for outside-group spenders in Senate races across the country, with about $23 million spent so far. Over half of the amount comes from groups aligned with Democrats. Missouri plays pivotal role in the control of the Congress and with shrewd spending by the Democrats McCaskill might have a chance to retain the seat.
She Distanced Herself from Her Party
McCaskill was mostly stuck with her party in Washington this year, voting against GOP’s massive tax cuts, against the repeal of Obamacare, and calling for gun control measures to be implemented after the shooting in Parkland. But she successfully tailored her message to highlight her record of working with Republicans, along with adopting Trump-like language to win votes in Republican-tilting suburbs. She even criticized Hillary Clinton for not showing sympathy to states won by Trump.
Greitens Scandal Might Weigh Down Josh Hawley’s candidacy
Josh Hawley is the state’s young, conservative attorney general and a graduate of Stanford and Yale Law School. He tries to align himself with Trump, but people are not convinced that he is really a populist guy. His campaign has been also dragged for months by Greitens sex scandal, until the Republican governor resigned in May, but the story remains in the shadow and might cause Hawley a big loss of votes. After all, McCaskill could be your best bet to win the US Senate elections in Missouri.