Newark by-election is today, 5 June, and the performance of UK Independence Party is one of the most discussed topics in the county, and betting houses are offering various odds for the final results.
UKIP performed outstandingly at the 2014 European Parliament Elections in May and became the first party different from the Labor Party and Conservative Party, which won the popular vote in national election since 1906.
Moreover, it became the first party other than the big two, which won the largest number of seats (24 out of 73 seats) in national election since 1910.
The importance of today
UKIP’s future is still not certain
•UKIP betting is getting serious
•The party won the 2014 European elections
•Still, it’s controversial for centre voters
This recent fabulous performance of UKIP makes the winning in the Newark by-election quite possible, therefore the UKIP betting fiesta is in full swing. The possibility of Nigel Farage’s party turning into a serious factor in UK politics is definitely closely followed.
Therefore, today’s elections are of essential importance, as UKIP may win its first MP seat, which will panic not only its local political opponents, but also foreign parties.
Betfair, following all UK gambling laws, gives the party 4.216/5 to emerge victorious at the Newark elections, which will only add pressure to everyone who never expected the controversial UKIP to turn into serious political project.
Looking at the results of the Local elections, which were held on the same day as the European Parliament one UKIP won 163 councilors’ seats, which was less than the predictions. Also despite the grand result at the Euro elections, their share could have been even bigger, if it wasn’t for Farage’s controversial comments about Romanian citizens.
Of course these results don’t necessarily mean that the 16,000 Conservatives majority can be flipped. Betfair’s poll shows Conservatives at 36%, UKIP at 28% and Labor at 27%. Betfair’s odds of 1.282/7 for the Tories made it into the gambling news and soon it will be know if the prediction will come true.
Conservatives’ victory is quite expected, according to the betting house, as it would reflect well the voters’ recent preferences, keeping in mind that despite the huge victory for UKIP at the European elections, voters still returned to the two biggest parties at the other one, so anything is possible.
The Tories are not expected to lose vast amount of seats, but the real problem is winning new ones. Betfair is sure that places like Newark won’t be loss, but the big cities may be much trickier to win.
Similarly, the Labor Party will probably gain more than 10 seats, thanks to the collapse of the Liberal Democrats, but Swindon for example can’t be won without an overall majority.
UKIP on the other hand is aiming at around 20 seats in places where euroscepticism is not a new phenomenon. Potential areas like Essex, Kent, Lincolnshire, etc. may bring the party at least five seats, which is estimated by Betfair at 3.814/5.
For now it seems that UKIP doesn’t really have potential to grow further as its policies are not attractive for the centre voters. Of course only the future will show what will the UK political reality looks like.