Does the Euro 2016 knockout draw mean you should bet on outsiders?

The Euro 2016 knockout draw is out, and there’s definitely one side that looks tougher. For those who bet on sports there’s an obvious question: does this mean an outsider has a real shot?

Switzerland, Poland, Croatia, Portugal, Wales, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Belgium... one of these eight team will be in the Euro 2016 final. None of these teams has ever won a European Championship before, though Portugal and Belgium have both lost in finals. One of these eight teams will be at least runner-up: can any of them win the tournament?

Odds for Favourites at 32 Red Sportsbook

• France @ 22/5
• Germany @ 5/1
• Spain @ 11/2
• Belgium @ 6/1
• Croatia @ 8/1

The other side of the draw features teams responsible for a total of 11 World Cup wins and 9 European Championship victories (or 10, if you count Czechoslovakia’s 1976 victory, many of whose players being Slovakian). The reigning World Champions Germany play Slovakia, and the winner will face one of the previous two World Cup winners: Spain and Italy. Hosts (and 1998 World Cup winners) France will play the Republic of Ireland, while England take on minnows Iceland in the weakest game of this half.

What teams will benefit from the Euro 2016 knockout draw

Odds for Contenders at 32 Red Sportsbook

• Portugal @13/1
• Italy@18/1
• Poland @ 28/1
• Wales @30/1

Most teams on the top half of the draw will be delighted by their fortune. Hungary, the surprise team of the tournament so far, will fancy their chances of surprising Belgium. Northern Ireland will have no fear against their UK rivals Wales. Poland and Switzerland will both be fairly satisfied that they are playing each other. Croatia and Portugal could be a tough match for both: however, they’ll each know that for the winner, the draw will open up. While a run to the latter stages would be shocking for Northern Ireland or Hungary, any of the other six would now no longer be a shocking finalist!

What teams are the losers of the Euro 2016 knockout draw?

Odds for Outsiders at 32 Red Sportsbook

• Switzerland @50/1
• Hungary @100/1
• Iceland @ 125/1
• Ireland @125/1

Unsurprisingly, most teams in the bottom half will be cursing their luck. Spain and Italy will be a great match for the neutral, but a little early in the tournament for a match-up that was the final in Euro 2012. The winner will then likely face Germany which should make for an epic quarter-final, with England or France waiting in the semi. In Spain the press have already dubbed their potential road to the final “la ruta de los campeones”: the route of champions. The hosts France may not be quite so worried, with a round-of-16 game against the Republic of Ireland followed by a likely clash against England.

What does the Euro 2016 knockout draw mean for odds

Online sportsbooks in the EU have recognised the difference in quality between the halves of the draw and adjusted their odds, but there are still bargains to be found. With only four games to win, at Wales @ 30/1 at 32 Red seems good value, while France @ 22/5 is still decent odds for the pre-tournament favourites. Hopefully you bet on outsiders before the tournament, when odds were still very high. If so, you could make some money in the next couple of weeks, even if you cash out before the end of the tournament!