Gov. Gavin Newsom Recall Election Odds Suggest He May Survive

  • The recall effort will likely qualify for the ballot
  • The recall election will be scheduled for November
  • Democrats are so far united in support of Gov. Newsom
Gavin Newsom recall election odds
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Californians must be carefully observing day-to-day updates with the recall of Governor Gavin Newsom. Will the effort qualify for the ballot? When will the vote likely take place? Will Gov. Newsom be ousted or not? We look at Gov. Gavin Newsom recall election odds here and try to analyze his chances.

Many political analysts at online sportsbook news sites in the United States expect the state election officials to be done reviewing the signatures by the end of April. There are over 2 million signatures turned in for review, according to capradio. That number is away more than the minimum required signatures for the recall election to go ahead against Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The next step will be submitting the final tally to California secretary of state Shirley Weber to certify the petition. Consequently, the election date will be set. Many suggest recall elections will take place sometime in early November. The voters will receive two questions: Do they want to recall Newsom, and if Newsom is recalled, which candidate would they want to replace him.

With his team getting ready to focus on winning the re-election, the Gov. Gavin Newsom recall election odds indicate he may survive. However, it is not guaranteed at all, as the odds for Newsom to be recalled or not to be recalled are very close. Here is why there is a possibility for the results to go either way.

Gov. Newsom is “worried” about the recall election

Gavin Newsom recall election odds
Gavin Newsom – Charlie Nguyen from Berkeley, CA, United States of America, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The supporters of the recall are from the mainstream California Republicans. Some of the leading figures are the strategists who worked on the 2003 recall of former Gov. Davis. Their effort at that time was successful. They were able to meet all the requirements for the recall. Finally, it took place and Gov. Davis was replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger of the Republicans.

Accordingly, Gov. Newsom acknowledged recently that the recall effort will likely qualify for the ballot. What is more, he said on The View that he is “worried” and he is “taking it seriously”. It is still unclear who are the prominent challengers to run in the race. If some of them are wealthy celebrities with sky-high name recognition and broad appeal, Newsom will face a real threat. As Gavin Newsom recalls election odds suggest, he holds a 2.88 value at 22BET Sportsbook, to lose his job.

Gavin Newsom recall election odds suggest he will likely survive

In modern history, many recall attempts took place to oust former California governors. All the efforts failed and only one successfully made it to the ballot. It was the recall of California Gov. Gary Davis in 2003. This makes it highly unlikely for Gov. Newsom to lose his job with 1.4 odds.

One thing that will help a lot is the support of his Democratic party. So far, a lot of Democratic figures and President Joe Biden oppose the recall and stand with Gov. Newsom. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also warned Democrats against running in the election, as per Politico. If the party remains united behind Newsom, he may survive. But, if a few Democrats decide to run and challenge Newsom, he will lose a lot of votes.

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