Trump faces a tough battle to reach 1237 delegates and so a contested convention looks likely. Some think that Paul Ryan stands a chance, but if you bet on US politics it seems like it’s time to be on the Republican nomination going to Ted Cruz.
A convention where the leading candidate doesn’t have the majority of votes, so a second ballot is held.
After months of gambling news declaring that everyone should bet on Donald Trump, suddenly the race doesn’t seem so certain. He still has most delegates, but he needs to keep winning to reach 1,237 and thus prevent a Contested Convention. He could win a convention, but after the second ballot (where most delegates can vote for who they want, rather than who won in their district) he probably wouldn’t be favourite. Here’s our guide to the main contenders for when you bet on the republican nomination:
Republican Nominee odds at Betsafe Sportsbook
- Trump @ 1.80 (4/5)
- Cruz @ 3.00 (2/1)
- Ryan @ 12.50 (23/2)
After months of seeming untouchable, Trump has suddenly become vulnerable in the past few weeks. He couldn’t decide what he believed about abortion, while his campaign manager was arrested for grabbing a reporter. He was never expected to win Wisconsin, but he doesn’t appear to have gained any support from previous Marco Rubio voters. A dominant win in New York could change the momentum again, but he’ll still face a challenge to get to 1,237 delegates.
Presidential Election Odds at Betsafe Sportsbook
- Trump @ 6.00 (5/1)
- Cruz @ 11.50 (21/2)
- Ryan @ 35.00 (34/1)
If US casino owner Trump fails to reach a majority of delegates, Ted Cruz is the best bet to win the Republican nomination. Firstly, he’s actually won some states. Convention rules haven’t been confirmed yet, but in 2012 candidates needed to have won 8 states just to get on the ballot; only Trump and Cruz have done that. Secondly, while many Republican congressmen were reluctant to support Cruz, he’ll likely have an easier time winning over delegates, who don’t come from the elite ranks of the party.
If outsiders were allowed on the ballot, Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan would be most likely to appear. He was the running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012, and is popular with the Republican Establishment. He has denied that he wants to run, but he also denied he wanted to be Speaker. However, even if he ended up on the ballot, delegates might not take kindly to someone who appeared at the last minute. He might not be the most popular, but at least Cruz has been “through the fire“ to be where he is.
So, what is the best bet on the Republican nomination?
It’s looking increasingly likely that Trump won’t have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. If that happens, the Republican Party will try to line up a candidate to beat him. Some have bet on Kasich as he is moderate, but he’s barely got any support in the race so far. Many have gone to online sportsbook to bet on Paul Ryan, but allowing an outsider to win would be a big gamble by the “Washington Elites”. That means that despite him having political views to the right of Gengis Khan, and a personality like sandpaper, if you want to bet on the Republican nomination… bet on Ted Cruz!