The expected revenues of Japan’s future casinos have been the subject of many estimations, the most recent puts it at almost $24billion a year.
Estimating the value of a potential casino market in Japan is not new to those who follow gambling news; but the most recent figure is quite a significant amount of money.
Telsey Advisory Group’s Senior Gaming & Lodging Analyst, Chris Jones, recently issued a 44-page analysis of Japan’s casino potential.
Jones estimated that the country could stand to earn as much as $23.8 billion a year, which translates to 0.4 percent of the country’s GDP, roughly what US casinos earn relative to America’s GDP.
A far more conservative if not more likely estimate would be still be about an impressive, $16.5 billion a year, with the majority of the earnings coming from Tokyo, which Jones believes can support two casinos.
If say an $8 billion casino is built in Tokyo and another smaller one is built somewhere across Tokyo Bay, those two establishments could potentially earn as much as $10 billion in revenue a year collectively.
Don’t bet on it
However, Jones also believes some obstructions could hamper the market’s full potential and that success is not a sure bet.
The slow progress the country has made in meeting the government’s tourist number goals could play a crucial role; Japan has set a target of 18 million visitors in 2016 and 25 million in 2020, but it has yet to even accomplish its more short-term goal of attracting 10 million visitors a year.
Even the allure of hosting the 2020 Olympics, won’t be enough for long-term stability.
Jones also mentioned that Japans casino market could have a domino effect on other jurisdictions; highlighting South Korea, which could lose as much as one-third of its casino business to Japan.
This could result in forcing the country to adopt a more relaxed policy of allowing its own citizens to play in their casinos, as currently nationals cannot gamble under South Korean gambling law.