The next Bundestag elections will take place between August and October 2021. More than 300 seats are needed for a majority. CDU/CSU is still leading even in a post-Merkel era. SPD and AfD are the second and third strongest parties respectively. Let us take a look at 2021 Bundestag betting predictions.
The next German federal elections for the Bundestag is expected to take place between August and October 2021. Our beloved Angela Merkel has announced that she will not seek re-election after 13 years as the chancellor of Germany.
2021 Bundestag Betting Predictions
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SPD- spiraling downwards
The social democratic party of Germany is the second major party in the German Bundestag. It is also the oldest party in the country. However, their support has been declining and they reached their lowest support in the 2017 Bundestag elections. According to the Economist, they are left behind.
The main problem with SPD is their difficulty to form an identity. Merkel has been on the top of CDU for 18 years but SPD has changed 8 different leaders. Their policies are not as popular with the people and they struggle to win back voters. For the above-mentioned reasons we absolutely believe they will not be able to win the majority during the 2021 Bundestag elections. The odds of SPD are currently 10.00.
CDU/CSU has the highest odds in 2021 Bundestag betting predictions
CDU/CSU (1.08) is the largest party in Germany and has won the majority of seats in the Bundestag. Angela Merkel who is the party leader has been serving as the Chancellor of Germany for the past 13 years. However, this year she has mentioned that she will not seek re-election. She has recognized that her authority has weakened since her decision to keep the German borders open in 2015.
Her preferred successor is the Secretary-General of the party- Annegret Kramp-Karenbauer. She has announced her candidacy recently. Nicknamed as the “Mini Merkel”, she also goes by her initials AKK. her decision to run as a CSU leader was met with applause from colleagues.
She is loyal to Merkel and wishes to follow in her footsteps, this is good news for those who were hardcore Merkel supporters. However, she is a bit more conservative about marriage and adoption rights of same-sex couples.
We believe in a post-Merkel era, CDU/CSU will remain the largest and most powerful party in the Bundestag and will win the 2021 Bundestag elections
AfD- a blast from the past?
It’s hard to see history even slightly repeating itself. The mottos of the AfD are very clear: German Nationalism and Right-wing populism. Sounds familiar? We’ll let you dwell upon that for a little while. Part of the AfD is linked to racist, anti-semitic and islamophobic ideologies. It is ironic that they call themselves alternative for Germany
You might be thinking there is no way that a horrifying party like this can win the federal election. But it is not that far from imagination. According to online sportsbook news in Germany, the party was found in 2013 and won 4.7% of the votes in the 2013 federal elections. Their grip on power rapidly grew and they won 12.9% of votes in the 2017 Federal elections. They became the third largest party in Germany winning 94 seats.
However, AfD is still a long way from becoming as strong as the other parties and we don’t think they will get there by the 2021 Federal elections. We are also hoping Germany doesn’t repeat their mistakes of the past and doesn’t go down the “right” way again. The odds of AfD are currently 34.00.