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Austria is heading for a snap election likely in September, after former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz was ousted in May 27. Three candidates will compete, including the former chancellor Kurz, Norbert Hofer, and Pamela Rendi-Wagner. We recommend betting on the next Austrian Chancellor to be Pamela Rendi-Wagner. She is running as underdog for the opposition Social Democrats.
Online sportsbook news in Austria did not confirm yet the exact date of the upcoming election. However, Austria’s President Alexander Van der Bellen voiced out his preference for holding the election in early September. Until then Brigitte Bierlein will rule the country through an expert government. She has set up the caretaker government after the Social Democrats and Freedom Party backed a no-confidence vote against Mr. Kurz.
The bookies suggest Mr. Kurz will most likely regain power in autumn. But, we think the value in betting on the next Austrian Chancellor lies with the underdog Pamela Rendi-Wagner.
Mr. Kurz’s People’s Party lead in early polls
According to Politico, two opinion polls have been conducted just days after Mr. Kurz was removed from his office. A survey conducted for Austria’s Korne newspaper shows that Kurz’s People’s Party will likely win 38 percent. On the other hand, the Social Democrats follow with 21 percent, dropping down from 26.9 percent in 2017. The third biggest party the Freedom Party are facing a crisis, as they might drop to 19 percent, down from 26 percent they won in 2017.
The Demox poll shows similar results with the Austrian People’s Party destined to win 37.5 percent. The Social Democrats might get 22.5 percent, and the Freedom Party 18.5 percent.
Norbert Hofer narrowly lost the 2016 presidential election
The new leader of the Freedom Party Norbert Hofer replaced the scandal-tainted Heinz-Christian Strache last month. Most reporters consider him as the new friendly-face of Austria’s far-right. Mr. Hofer will try to present Freedom Party’s moderate face. However, he sees himself like President Trump the nationalist who recognizes the concerns of ordinary people.
Mr. Hofer served as the transport minister in the ousted government. He ran in the 2016 presidential election, losing the race by a mere 31,000 votes against the current President Alexander Van der Bellen. His strong performance during the 2016 election will probably pose a concern for Mr Kurz. Should Mr. Hofer win the chancellorship, his odds stand at 21.00, according to 22BET Sportsbook.
Pamela Rendi-Wagner might benefit from “Ibiza affair”
The former Health Minister Pamela Rendi-Wagner unanimously took the top job of the Social Democratic Party in November 2018. The 47-year-old doctor became the first woman to lead the Party, despite being a member for only two years. Rendi-Wagner has been trying to move Social Democrats to the center to gain more popularity. However, in 2019 European Elections they dropped to 23.9 percent, down from 24.09 percent in 2014. Yet, the so called “Ibiza affair” scandal might help Rendi-Wagner to put Social Democrats back on track. The odds value at 5.5, should you bet on the next Austrian chancellor to be Pamela Rendi-Wagner.
Mr Kurz needs to boost his Party’s popularity further
Although the former chancellor Sebastian Kurz has been forced to resign, his political career is far from over. His People’s Party emerged as the clear winner in the European elections, surging 8.5 percent points. They received 34.9 percent jumping from 26.9 percent in 2014. Therefore, at the moment Kurz’s Party looks on course to re-emerge as Austria’s largest party at the upcoming elections.
Mr. Kurz remains one of the country’s most-popular politicians, but without forging a coalition he will probably not be able to regain the chancellorship. As for now a potential coalition between People’s Party and the Social Democrats or Freedom Party seems unlikely. The other option for Mr. Kurz is to boost his Party’s popularity further to build a lead that can allow him rule alone. Should he succeed in his quest the odds are 1.30 at 22BET Sportsbook.
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