Bet on the favourites at the ATP Italian Open


Posted: May 10, 2016

Updated: May 10, 2016

It’s time for The Rome Masters, the ATP Italian Open. Outsiders haven’t done very well at Masters tournament in recent years, so we recommend you be on the favourites.

Bet on the favourites at Bet Victor

  • Djokovic @ 1.80 (4/5)
  • Murray @ 6.00 (5/1)
  • Nadal @ 6.50 (11/2)

If you bet on sport, it’s sometimes wise to be on the favourites. If you bet on tennis, it’s the only way to win. Here is an interesting stat: The ATP Italian Open is the 50th Masters 1000 event since the beginning of 2011. Of those, only 3 events have been won by anyone other than Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, or Murray. And those three tournaments (Ferrer winning Paris 2012, Warwrinka at Monte Carlo 2014, and Tsonga in Canada in 2014) were won by players whose career-high rankings were 3, 3, and 5, respectively.

Even more remarkably, if Djokovic were to triumph, he will have won half of the tournaments in that time period. If it seems that to bet on the favourite means merely to be on Djokovic, the story is a litte different on clay. In the three Masters 1000 tournaments held on the red surface – Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome – since 2011 Nadal has won 7 to Novak’s 6. More remarkably, in the previous 6 years of Clay Court Masters (including the time before Madrid replaced Hamburg at that level) Nadal had won 14 of the available 18 Masters 1000 titles.

Rafa Nadal

Can Rafa win his record eighth Italian Masters?

So, before rushing to mobile betting sites to wager on the favourites: which favourite is most likely to win? Do you bet on Djokovic to win his sixth Masters title out of the previous 7, and make it three in a row in Rome? Do you bet on Nadal to win a record 8th tournament in the Italian capital? Perhaps you back Murray to win Rome, where he has never previously made it to the final? Can Federer come back from injury to regain the title he won in 2012? Or could this be the first time in a decade that you shouldn’t bet on the favourites in Rome? Who could be the first non-big-4 winner since Robredo in 2006? Here’s our guide

Novak Djokovic: 1.80 (4/5) at BetVictor

The Serb is the clear favourite, and for very good reason. A win would be his fourth in Rome, and is fourth masters title of the year. It would be his 30th Master 1000 title ever, a record. The only question is one of concentration. He will be focused on preparations for the French Open. Will he be distracted, and fall to another unlikely loss? His draw is tough enough that he’ll need to be on form to win. However, the likelihood is that in preparation for Roland Garros he will be determined to maintain his form, and continue to re-cultivate the air of invincibility that was slightly dented by his loss in Monte Carlo. Bet on Djokovic to win.

Andy Murray: 6.00 (5/1) at BetVictor

While Murray won Madrid last year, and lost a competitive final to Djokovic on Sunday, he has never been as successful in Rome. His best result was reaching the semi-final, and that was in 2007. It’s right that he is second-favourite after he pushed Novak in Madrid, but a win would still be an upset. He has just split with his coach Amelie Mauresmo, which may hinder his preparation.

Andy Murray

Can Murray win his first Italian Masters? (Photo: Sky)

Rafael Nadal: 6.50 (11/2) at BetVictor

The Spanish legend looked almost back to his best when he won Monte Carlo, his first masters for almost two years. However, that probably had something to do with Djokovic’s surprise early exist to Jiri Vesely. Nadal then lost to Murray in Madrid. If Djokovic were to lose again then betting on Nadal could be a good idea; otherwise, a win would be a big shock. However, if you bet on sports in Spain, his odds do look a lot more tempting than they did at his peak!

Roger Federer: 21.00 (20/1) at BetVictor

Federer returns from the back injury that kept him out of the Madrid masters, but it’s unlikely he’ll be in peak condition. His first opponent is Zverev, who beat “mini-Fed” Grigor Dimitrov in the first round. After that he’d likely have to play one of the favourites before reaching the final: so don’t bet on Federer winning this tournament.

The Outsiders:

After his French Open title last year, you can certainly never write Wawrinka (11.00) off when it comes to clay. He can beat anybody, including Djokovic. However, he’s not been playing very well latterly, and a bet on Wawrinka would be more in hope that expectation.

Nishikori (21.00) is one of the likelier outsiders to triumph, but so far he hasn’t managed to sustain the form and intensity to win every match in a Masters tournament. He always has a chance though.

Youngsters Thiem (67.00) and Zverev (81.00) will likely be featuring in the final stages of Masters tournaments in years to come, but it may still be too early for them. Finally, Raonic (41.00), has reached the quarters two years running, so he’ll be hoping to at least reach that again.

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