A lot depends on the outcome of the race, as the competition between Vettel and Hamilton is still close: the Ferrari driver is going to the Hockenheimring with 171 points, the Mercedes racer with 163. When it comes to betting, Hamilton’s 8 point deficit translates to a mere 0.10 deficit in odds: online sportsbook sites in the UK indicate that he has essentially the same odds (6/4 aka 2.60) to win the German GP as Vettel (8/5 aka 2.50).
But let us not be so quick to dismiss the rest of the drivers. The German GP, after all, have surprised Formula One fans in many ways in the last few years.
About the German Grand Prix
The history of the German GP includes not only unexpected but also controversial turn of events. In 2009, for instance, negotiations about the GP’s future were cancelled for a while after Bernie Ecclestone, the Formula One commercial rights holder, had praised Hitler and Saddam Hussein for their leadership styles. Negotiations were not easier in later years, when the cost of hosting the race proved to be too high and the race had to be made a biennial event.
There have been all sorts of drama on the circuit itself, too, including Ferrari’s breaking the “no team order” rule in 2010 to help Alonso win the race. Will 2018 bring more drama to the history of the race? Will it be remembered for an upset or will it be won by one of the favorites?
What does the history of the race suggest?
Judging by the records of the last ten years, the Hockenheimring circuit seems to suit Hamilton better than Vettel. The British driver won the German GP three times, once at the Nürburgring circuit (2011) and once in the Hockenheimring (2016 and 2008). His German rival finished first on his home turf only once (2013), at the Nürburgring, which no longer hosts the race.
This increases the likelihood that Hamilton will win the German GP next week and decrease his points deficit. He may have better chances than the official 2.60 betting odds suggest.
Other drivers: their F1 German GP odds in 2018
Who has the best shot at upsetting the odds and beating the two favorites to the top of the podium? The other drivers who won the race in the last ten years (Fernando Alonso, Nico Rosberg, and Mark Webber) have all retired by now, so the strongest underdog is not among them.
Unibet Sportsbook offers 8.00 (aka 7/1) for Valtteri Bottas and Max Verstappen (who are currently 5th and 6th in the Drivers Championship, respectively) and 9.00 (aka 8/1) for Kimi Raikkonen (3rd in the Drivers Championship).
Would these drivers indeed make good inside bets? Yes, the stats do confirm this evaluation of online betting sites in the UK: Raikkonen finished 2nd at the German GP in 2013 and 3rd in 2012; Bottas grabbed the 2nd position in 2014; and Verstappen was 3rd in 2016. It wouldn’t be shocking if one of them climbed to the top of the podium this year.
Do you find the official F1 German GP odds of 2018 accurate? Who are you rooting for? Let us know in the comments below!