Football Stats Are Misleading at Times
Posted: September 21, 2015
Updated: October 6, 2017
Are you a regular bettor that spends a decent amount of time analysing football stats? If so, then the following info might be of interest to you.
All of us have our own technique when it comes to placing bets on sports. Some like to rush in immediately as if they were playing the lottery and not caring much about important side factors. While others like to look through the football stats briefly and then go straight to the bet, hoping this will be enough to make them reach gambling news. And then there are those who will scrutinize every important detail, in efforts to make sure that their event in mind has the lowest degree of risk and will therefore have a greater chance of paying them out.
But the question is, do football stats actually work for bettors? You can analyse past performances of a certain team and look at all their strengths and weaknesses, and in the end you might very well still lose. For that reason, we will try to see for ourselves whether serious bettors should still spend a great deal of time going through football stats.
There are many ways to observe sports data, but nowadays when it comes to football stats the most important factor is “expected goals” or “xG” in a match, according to the New York Times. There are only two possible outcomes when a player decides to take a shot: he scores or he misses. But what really matters is how the ball was struck and in what fashion, meaning that not every shot has the same importance in terms of statistical points.
If for instance, a player finds himself fairly close to the goal, the chances are 50 percent that the ball will wind up in the back of the net, which translates to 0.5 xG points. On the other hand, if a shot is taken from far away it is less-likely that the ball will find its way to the net, so that may be only worth 0.1 xG points. Considering this, it is easy to see how football stats and odds may be sometimes deceptive for bettors. Some football critics would argue that although one team lost, and another won in a match, it does not necessarily mean that the winning side was the better one. However, that aspect is not displayed in the stats provided to mobile betting fans.
There are a number of online sites that feature a great deal of info about every team and their performances. This is all mainly to Opta, a site dedicated to gathering sports data. You can find various information about any team, or any upcoming event. You can then compare data and make your assessment on the potential winner of the encounter. Grantland reported, that although the information can come in handy for punters that know how to use it, it doesn’t involve broader details.
Just like critics that support the notion that the winning side is not always the best team of the match, this also applies to individual players within those teams. If a player from one team scores 2-3 goals, he will get high marks, which might propel people to place wager son him scoring in the next game. Considering human tendencies, it’s only natural to make such a bet…However, what modern football stats ignore is the fact that there might have been several key players that were responsible for creating chances for the goalscoring player. This is a vital fact, but it does not appear on the important data sheets. The player who is without the ball at his feet can be as equally as influential as the player that scores the goal.
After taking a look at this, we can conclude that football stats do matter, to an extent. However, the point is that are not always applicable to the upcoming events. There are far too many factors to consider that many online sportsbooks in the EU don’t take note of. And too many things can get in the way of making football stats actually useful for every event.
All of us have our own technique when it comes to placing bets on sports. Some like to rush in immediately as if they were playing the lottery and not caring much about important side factors. While others like to look through the football stats briefly and then go straight to the bet, hoping this will be enough to make them reach gambling news. And then there are those who will scrutinize every important detail, in efforts to make sure that their event in mind has the lowest degree of risk and will therefore have a greater chance of paying them out.
• Football stats can be subjective at times
• Punters can be misled with the data provided to them
• The winning teams are not always the best teams
But the question is, do football stats actually work for bettors? You can analyse past performances of a certain team and look at all their strengths and weaknesses, and in the end you might very well still lose. For that reason, we will try to see for ourselves whether serious bettors should still spend a great deal of time going through football stats.
Expected goals play an important role for football stats
A winning team can make a great player, but one great player can’t make a team win
There are many ways to observe sports data, but nowadays when it comes to football stats the most important factor is “expected goals” or “xG” in a match, according to the New York Times. There are only two possible outcomes when a player decides to take a shot: he scores or he misses. But what really matters is how the ball was struck and in what fashion, meaning that not every shot has the same importance in terms of statistical points.
If for instance, a player finds himself fairly close to the goal, the chances are 50 percent that the ball will wind up in the back of the net, which translates to 0.5 xG points. On the other hand, if a shot is taken from far away it is less-likely that the ball will find its way to the net, so that may be only worth 0.1 xG points. Considering this, it is easy to see how football stats and odds may be sometimes deceptive for bettors. Some football critics would argue that although one team lost, and another won in a match, it does not necessarily mean that the winning side was the better one. However, that aspect is not displayed in the stats provided to mobile betting fans.
Football stats lack showing the bigger picture
There are a number of online sites that feature a great deal of info about every team and their performances. This is all mainly to Opta, a site dedicated to gathering sports data. You can find various information about any team, or any upcoming event. You can then compare data and make your assessment on the potential winner of the encounter. Grantland reported, that although the information can come in handy for punters that know how to use it, it doesn’t involve broader details.
The problem with predictions is, that really almost anything might happen, any time
Just like critics that support the notion that the winning side is not always the best team of the match, this also applies to individual players within those teams. If a player from one team scores 2-3 goals, he will get high marks, which might propel people to place wager son him scoring in the next game. Considering human tendencies, it’s only natural to make such a bet…However, what modern football stats ignore is the fact that there might have been several key players that were responsible for creating chances for the goalscoring player. This is a vital fact, but it does not appear on the important data sheets. The player who is without the ball at his feet can be as equally as influential as the player that scores the goal.
After taking a look at this, we can conclude that football stats do matter, to an extent. However, the point is that are not always applicable to the upcoming events. There are far too many factors to consider that many online sportsbooks in the EU don’t take note of. And too many things can get in the way of making football stats actually useful for every event.
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