How the NFL Trading Deadline Could Dramatically Change NFL Betting Odds
Posted: October 27, 2014
Updated: June 4, 2017
The NFL trading deadline isn’t a big newsmaker, but this year’s deadline could bring some major blockbuster deals.
The NFL has the lowest frequency of trades of any of the major American pro sports leagues. MLB teams barter back and forth over players seemingly for the fun of it, the NBA trade deadline always has some blockbuster deals, even the NHL has an active trading season. The NFL, not so much.
Maybe it has to the do with the history of one-sided deals in the NFL. In 1989 the Minnesota Vikings handed their future to the Dallas Cowboys for overrate running back Herschel Walker. In 1991 the Atlanta Falcons traded future hall of fame quarterback Bret Favre to the Green Bay Packers for a pile of peanuts. You get the idea.
While the NFL still lags behind other leagues, the volume and frequency of trades has increased significantly over the past few years. With the trade deadline set to approach next week several teams are in the market to unload or add star players.
Several potential trades could make gambling news but seriously altering the odds for winning the 2015 Super Bowl. One high-profile trade already has.
Seattle trading Percy Harvin to the New York Jets
• The Seahawks have a lower chance of winning the Super Bowl after trading Percy Harvin
• Tom Brady could be on his way out of New England, which would put the Patriots out of contention
• Detroit is torn between trying to win this year and trying to build a team for the future
This trade already happened, so it should garner special attention. The reigning Super Bowl champions traded their most explosive offensive player to the Jets for a mere third-round pick. The reason? Harvin is injury prone and known for throwing temper tantrums, and the Seahawks decided he wasn’t worth keeping around anymore.
As for Harvin’s new team, the Jets are going nowhere this year with him or without him. They brought him in hoping that he a cornerstone in the team’s rebuilding project. It’s a boom or bust move for them, and the odds don’t look in their favor.
~ Odds: Following the trade online sportsbooks in the UK Bet365 dropped the Seahawks to 10/1 on winning the Super Bowl, behind the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers. While losing Harvin sets them back in the short term, we would take those odds. As for the Jets, don’t bother. ~
Tom Brady is on the trading block
ESPN has reported the several anonymous general managers around the league believe that the New England Patriots are seriously considering putting legendary quarterback Tom Brady on the trading block.
Brady is past his prime and the team needs to start rebuilding around young players. One scenario would be for the Pats to trade Brady to the Houston Texans for star wide receiver Andre Johnson and draft picks.
While the deal would likely benefit the Patriots going forward, they don’t have an immediate replacement for Brady and would likely be kissing their playoff chances goodbye.
~ Odds: The Pats current 11/1 odds to win the Super Bowl will plummet, while Houston would improve but remain out of Super Bowl contention. ~
Ndomakung Suh wants out of Detroit
The Detroit Lions are in an unusual situation. The long-moribund franchise is fielding their most talented team in decades, but Suh, their best defensive player, has told management that he intends to sign with a different team after the season.
There are rumors that the Cincinnati Bengals are willing to pay a heavy for Suh, a player whom they believe could turn them into Super Bowl contenders.
The Lions are caught between trying to make a deep playoff run this year or trading Suh for draft picks they can use to build the team next season. It’s a major dilemma, but we predict that Suh stays put and the Lions go all-in the rest of the season.
~ Odds: The Lions odds of winning the Super Bowl currently sit at 29/1; if they trade Suh, expect that to fall to about 40/1. The Bengals are currently at 29/1, adding Suh could them up to 15/1. ~
The Eagles want the #1 overall pick
Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles are in the playoff hunt but grumblings from inside the locker room indicate that the team isn’t sold on quarterback Nick Foles. The Eagles can make the playoffs with him under center, but they won’t compete for the Super Bowl.
The rumor is that the team wants to obtain the first overall pick in the 2015 draft so that they can take Marcus Mariota, Kelly’s former quarterback at the University of Oregon and a rare blue-chip prospect. He is someone a team can build around, and the Eagles are rumored to be willing to give up star running back LeSean McCoy to get him.
This trade looks the least probable of any on this list, but if the Eagles can do a deal with the Oakland Raiders involving McCoy and some secondary assets for the Raider’s first round pick (likely to be first overall) they may do it.
Worst case scenario, the Eagles end up with the second or third overall pick and take Jameis Winston, another top-tier quarterback prospect. And while McCoy is a great player, a good running back simply can’t match the value of a franchise quarterback.
~ Odds: The Eagles currently have 19/1 odds of winning the Super Bowl, meaning that they are a good team but probably not good enough. And trading McCoy would put them out of contention. Either way, don’t risk your mobile betting budget on them. ~