Anonymous businessman based out from London was confident in his beliefs that Scotland would Vote No on the Referendum and wagered nearly GBP 1 Million.
Recently, Scotland held a Referendum to split away from the United Kingdom and become an independent state, however the majority decided to vote No and therefore stay within the union. Stats showed that just under 45 percent of the voters opted for a free Scotland, a result of a large scale Yes campaign, however it didn’t come to fruition in the end.
Many online sportsbooks in the UK were offering preferable odds for a No, which saw many gamblers seize the opportunity and make the appropriate wagers on the outcome. One former market analyst and trader also spotted the great chance to capitalize on the event and tabled a massive GBP 900,000 bet on Scotland deciding No.
Rational bet based on opinion polls
• London former trader makes GBP 900,000 bet on No
• Made a profit of GBP 193,333 one overall bets
• Nicknamed “Peter” by some outlets
• Observed more than 80 polls to reach his decision
The London trader claimed that the decision he made to wager the staggering amount was rational as it was based on results from the opinion polls that heavily suggested Scotland would remain within the UK. He initially tabled GBP 400,000 bet with William Hill, but later decided to increase it two more times on right before Thursday’s election.
The overall bets that he placed made him a profit of GBP 193,333, as the outcome showed that No campaign won by 55% to 45%. Numerous gambling providers later revealed that a record number of people placed wagers on the referendum, with many of them betting on the Yes campaign. However, those were all smaller sums as none matched the GBP 900,000 bet.
According to gambling news, the anonymous businessman has extensive experience in market analysis and trading operations which he has applied to betting to record a massive win. It is believed that he has worked in the specialized business field for more than 30 years which gave him a solid backbone and knowledge on whether or not Scotland would vote No.
Local papers made some unpleasant comments by referring to him as a “feckless gambler,” a person that is deemed worthless or irresponsible. However, he believes that making such a bold move to place a great deal of money on the vote was purely rational. Moreover, the decision to do so was backed by his wife so he had the full support on his side.
The bet was good publicity for pro-UK campaign
The trader described himself to be of Pakistani-German ancestry and maintains that he is firm unionist in his heart. He claimed that one of the main reason for his decision to make such a gamble was because he believed that it served as good publicity for the pro-UK campaign. The political bet has been touted to have been perhaps one of the biggest in the world.
The man was quick to issue a warning to others about placing such bets, as he said that he has vast experience in the speculative field. “The first thing I should say is: don’t try this at home. Perhaps I have a bit of a unique background given what I do given I have been involved in markets and as my daughters tell me, I’m a bit of a data geek and information nerd.”
He wanted to conceal his identity from the public, however the man that been nicknamed “Peter” by some outlets stressed that he observed and studied over 80 polls on the website Whatscotlandthinks. The site was overseen by polling expert Professor John Curtice of the Strathclyde University.
Additionally, he also studied the Quebec referendum from 1995 when Yes vote started climbing fast as the polling day approached. He came to the conclusion that the Scottish referendum was no different and was part of the same cycle. However, the difference was that in Scotland only a handful of polls gave a lead to Yes vote, according to mobile betting sites.
Peter claimed that at a certain point he got quite nervous and worried as the Yes vote took the lead in the polls for a brief moment. However, just like in Quebec the scenario played out with the No campaign offering new powers which granted it a considerable lead and therefore leaving Yes campaign with no time to make an appropriate response.
For comments that were aimed at him in the papers for being “feckless,” Peter stated that he had signed “a significant cheque to charity,” while also adding that he wants to caution people against doing such things in the future. “I’m trying to warn people this isn’t something we should do lightly.”
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