Madrid Regional Election Odds Indicate Ayuso Likely to Retain Presidency


Posted: April 27, 2021

Updated: April 27, 2021

  • Madrid has been PP’s stronghold since 1995
  • PSOE won the regional election in 2019
  • Podemos’s national leader Iglesias joined the race in Madrid

An intense campaign for regional elections in the Spanish capital is underway. Six parties are contesting in a 136-seat Assembly. As per Madrid regional election odds, the conservative People’s Party led by Isabel Diaz Ayuso has the best chance of winning. However, the election race remains wide open with the likes of PSOE, Vox, and Podemos vying for a strong fight.

The poll will open up for Madrilenians to cast their vote on 04 May, as online sportsbook news sites in Spain reported. The election was originally set for May 2023. But, the Madrilenian president Isabel Diaz Ayuso was able to call for a snap election after her alliance with Ciudadanos broke up.

The election is highly crucial to all six contesting parties, as it will determine who will hold the power in Spain’s richest and third most populous region. However, it will be no easy task to defeat the People’s Party (PP) in Madrid, its stronghold since 1995. Therefore, Madrid’s regional election odds remain in favor of PP to win most seats and retain the presidency.

PP looks for winning most seats

As many analysts at online sportsbooks in Spain indicate this election might cement the right-wing’s hold led by Ayuso. She has been one of the most prominent politicians on the Spanish right. Thus, no surprise that Ayuso, 42, can bring PP to power.

The party is running with a slogan “Communism or freedom”, hoping to convince voters to break up with the left. In the assembly that has just been dissolved the PP had only 30 seats. But, with the snap election, it hopes to surpass PSOE and be the closest to get to the 69 seats needed for an absolute majority.

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Such numbers might be too ambitious, but PP’s Madrid regional election odds are 1.03 to win most seats, as per 22BET Sportsbook. Should that happen and some type of alliance is formed with Vox, Ayuso will return to her job as the president with 1.14 odds.

PSOE won most seats in 2019

The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) won most seats in 2019 for the first time since 1987. They held 37 seats before the assembly was dissolved this March. The center-left party is in power nationally under the rule of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. However, there is no much hope it will be able to retain most seats again, despite that the odds are 18.

Madrid regional election odds
Palace of Madrid

Vox Party remains a big force in the region

The far-right party Vox, won 12 seats in 2019. It is a big force in the region, led by Rocio Monasterio. The party made a lot of noise in the past days heating up the campaign and polarizing the public. However, it is hard to predict how Vox will score in May, with the odds standing 24 to win most seats.

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Podemos is currently the smallest party in Madrid

Unidas Podemos national leader Pablo Iglesias dropped a bombshell recently resigning as deputy prime minister to run in the election. He is seemingly aiming to increase the party’s seats that are only 7. The party has had some success previously, but it faced a disastrous 2019 election becoming the smallest party in the region. Thus, it is hard to see how Podemos can win most seats with 51 odds.

Other parties with a slim chance

Ciudadanos had a huge success in 2019 winning 27 seats. It was no surprise as it came close to a major national breakthrough, according to Politico. But, then the party faced a dramatic fall, which is arguably still underway. Therefore the odds 101 to win most seats are extremely unlikely.

The other small party on the other side of the spectrum, Mas Madrid was founded in 2018. The party is led by Monica Garcia, a doctor who worked in ICU recently. Mas Madrid’s odds are surprisingly 15 to win most seats. Yet it remains to be seen whether that is possible or not.

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