Politics

November 2019 Spanish General Election Odds Show Mr. Casado Posing a Threat to PM Sanchez

  • PM Pedro Sanchez will still need Podemos’ support to form a government
  • Mr. Casado is on the rise, winning back the conservatives
  • No other candidate can challenge Mr. Sanchez and Mr. Casado
2019 Spanish General Election Odds
Bookies argue Pablo Casado has a shot

Spain is heading to the polls for the fourth time in four years, after almost six months of failed negotiations. November 2019 Spanish general election odds show the results are set to be broadly similar to the last April election. That means PSOE leader Pedro Sanchez will have to seek a coalition with left-wing parties once again. Should he fail, his rival candidate PP’s Pablo Casado might have a shot on the premiership.

The country is returning to the polls on November 10, after the PM Pedro Sanchez failed to agree on a deal with Unidas Podemos. As per online sportsbook news in Spain, Mr. Sanchez had to form a coalition to reach the threshold of 176 seats required to control parliament. It was the only leeway after his PSOE party won a snap election in April, without securing a majority. The November 2019 Spanish general election odds show that there are only two possible outcomes. Either Pedro Sanchez succeeds to form a coalition or his rival Pablo Casado takes over with a lead of a right-wing bloc.

Mr. Sanchez will still need Podemos’ support to form a government 

Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE party has 123 members in parliament, following the April 28 election. However, that is well short of a majority. Since last April, PM Sanchez has been leading a caretaker government. Yet, he failed to form a proper coalition and took the country to a six-month political stalemate. Despite that, the opinion polls suggest PSOE would still finish first with 29% of the vote, but without a majority in the parliament.

2019 Spanish General Election Odds Show
Pedro Sanchez (psoe extremadura [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons)
The popularity of PSOE is due to people still remembering Sanchez’s previous success in turfing Rajoy’s government out of office. In addition, the Ciudadanos (Citizens) party is expected to lose a lot of its supporters after it shifted to the right crafting alliances with the PP and Vox. Thus, PSOE hopes to steal some of these voters and also attract more non-separatist Catalans.

After the election, Mr. Sanchez will return to negotiate a deal with the left-wing Unidas Podemos. Even if he agrees with Podemos’ Pablo Iglesias, he will still need to get the support from  PNV and PRC to control parliament. It seems a very complicated mission. Should he succeed, November 2019 Spanish general election odds value 1.44 at 22BET Sportsbook for Mr. Sanchez to retain his premiership.

Mr. Casado on the rise winning back the conservatives

The conservative Popular Party (PP) led by Pablo Casado will likely finish second, according to the polls. PP might pick up some seats they lost in April, and increase their support from 16.7% to around 21%. The increase in PP’s popularity is probably due to Mr. Casado’s moderate persona. Mr. Casado is trying to win back the conservative voters, who switched to Ciudadanos and Vox in April. However, like Sanchez, Casado needs to forge an alliance to become the next Prime Minister. He might think of a deal with Ciudadanos, Vox, and several other small parties. Should he succeed and Sanchez fails, his odds are 2.75 at 22BET Sportsbook.

No other candidate can seriously challenge Sanchez & Casado

Online sportsbook sites in Spain suggest few other candidates are aspiring to capture the premiership. Albert Rivera values 17, but his Citizens’ party is expected to be one of the biggest losers in the upcoming election. Santiago Abascal Vox leader values 31, but his party is also in decline. Besides, Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias stands at 81. His party might win a few additional seats. However, that will give Mr. Iglesias a stronger position when negotiating a deal with Mr. Sanchez.

The upcoming election is likely not good news for the Spaniards. They are probably frustrated after being called to the ballot box for the second time in 2019. That might cause the turnout to significantly drop. If you wish to place a bet on the election turnout, you may check our review about 22BET Sportsbook. The odds are 1.83 for the turnout to be lower than 66.54% or higher than 66.55%.

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