Oscars 2026 Betting Guide: Nominees and Winners

Attention: the 98th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on March 15, 2026! And this year it will feature 12 categories, with the best in each selected by Academy members. Nominees were announced as early as January 22, as the first round of voting runs from the 12th to the 21st. As always, the Best Picture category generates the most buzz. The shortlists were already formed, narrowing the contenders in each category. Let’s look at the main nominations and the bookmakers’ odds on the winners in our Oscars 2026 Betting Guide!

Best Picture: “One Battle After Another” on the path to Academy recognition

The Best Picture nomination is traditionally the Oscars’ marquee event. This year, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the clear frontrunner, a view shared by online sportsbooks in the USA. There are no strict criteria for how Academy members pick the best film, which often frustrates critics and fans. For instance, none of Anderson’s previous films have been nominated by the Academy, even though most are considered legendary. “One Battle After Another,” which tells the story of Leonardo DiCaprio’s revenge as a former revolutionary, bombed at the box office, grossing just $200 million. Critics’ reviews were mixed too, and compared to the director’s other works like “Magnolia” and “Phantom Thread,” it lags significantly in visuals and storytelling. Nevertheless, this film could bring the Brit his first Oscar.

Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” surprisingly raked in strong box office despite its unconventional setting. The horror tale of vampires amid the gothic American South of the last century turned out gripping and relatively fresh. And with Michael B. Jordan’s dual role it is ranking among the year’s best performances. On the flip side, Coogler has often tried to make films overloaded with references to African American culture. “Sinners” is far more compelling than his comic-book fare like “Black Panther” However, it feels like the director arrived late to the party. For example, early 2020s would have offered much better odds for success.

“Hamnet” is faring better at the box office thanks to its low production costs. Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of the novel of the same name offers a fresh take on the Shakespeare family. With Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal’s characters fully realized despite the relatively short two-hour runtime. For comparison, “One Battle After Another” clocks in at about 190 minutes. That said, the film’s overly leisurely pace and excessive sentimentality distract from the big picture, making Anderson’s work feel more cohesive. Meanwhile, costing “Hamnet” its status as the top contender.

Oscars 2026 Betting Guide: Best Director

Anderson is undoubtedly the top contender for the award. The director of “There Will Be Blood,” “Phantom Thread,” and “Magnolia” has shockingly never won an Oscar despite 11 nominations. Ironically, it’s a film starring DiCaprio — who was long seen as one of Hollywood’s unlucky ones before his 2016 Oscar — that will likely deliver the Brit’s long-awaited win. Bovada Sportsbook and its odds are at least convinced in this.

Chloé Zhao already has an Oscar for “Nomadland,” and many believe her main hurdle will be the emotional similarities between that 2021 winner and “Hamnet.” Despite different settings, critics note that Zhao recycles the same techniques from four years ago. While Anderson builds a more complex structure on his signature style. Ryan Coogler is an even less likely candidate. He was nominated in 2021 as a producer for “Judas and the Black Messiah.” This ceremony marks his first directing nod. Yet against titans like Anderson, Cooper has virtually no shot at victory.

Best Actor: Chalamet vs. DiCaprio showdown

Timothée Chalamet came close to an Oscar last year. However, his Bob Dylan role wasn’t enough to outshine Adrien Brody’s performance in “The Brutalist.” This time, the 27-year-old actor’s main rival is DiCaprio himself. Chalamet has become a symbol of Hollywood’s new generation, shining in big-budget fare like Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” and auteur films like Wes Anderson’s “Don’t Look Up.” “Marty Supreme” is unlikely to contend for other awards. If reviews are to be believed, it’s Timothée’s acting carrying the film, which hits theaters only in mid-January. An Oscar would be the logical capstone to the career of Luca Guadagnino’s favorite.

DiCaprio closed his personal chapter in 2016 with his long-awaited win for “The Revenant.” Since then, he’s been nominated just once — in 2020 for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” A decade ago, the world held its breath waiting for the award for one of the 21st century’s top actors. Now, though DiCaprio is back on the big screen, his vengeful revolutionary role falls short of his playboy in “The Wolf of Wall Street” or the wounded hunter in “The Revenant.” The American’s commitment to original roles —not based on real people — could work in his favor. Over the past 15 years, biopics have won seven times (most recently Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer” in 2024), while authentic characters have taken it eight times.

Best Actress: Will Buckley get her statue?

The top favorite this year is Jessie Buckley. Her brilliant performance in “Hamnet” and the fully realized unconventional character of Shakespeare’s wife make it unlikely the 35-year-old Irish actress will miss out on her first career Oscar. In a film of this format, Shakespeare himself — superbly played by Paul Mescal — should have taken center stage, but it was Buckley who perfectly conveyed a mother’s grief over losing her son. Bookmakers also see Rose Byrne as a contender for her role as Linda in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” The 46-year-old Australian masterfully brought the film’s existentialism, her character’s discomfort, and life struggles to the screen.

That said, the psychological thriller genre is often overlooked by the Academy, and these plots have grown stale—only the setting and final suspense level change. Emma Stone delivered one of her most memorable roles in the sci-fi comedy “Bugonia.” She plays an alien trying to control humanity by wiping out honeybees. In the absurd plot, Stone’s character is revealed from every angle. Plus, she really shaved her head for the role — bonus points for immersion. In contrast to more grounded parts in films like “La La Land,” her collaborations with Yorgos Lanthimos’s quirky stories have already paid off. In 2024, Emma won an Oscar for the steampunk comedy “Poor Things.” online sportsbooks in the USA, however, aren’t betting on the American’s success.

Best International Film 2026

For the 98th ceremony, Norway’s poignant family drama “Sentimental Value,” directed by Joachim Trier, reigns as the overwhelming favorite at around 66% implied odds on prediction markets. This emotional powerhouse, blending raw vulnerability with stellar turns, has shortlist cred from December 16, 2025. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cannes-lauded “The Secret Agent” trails closely at 29% odds, its tense espionage thriller packing narrative punch that could echo “Parasite’s” sweep.

France’s “It Was Just an Accident” brings prestige pedigree despite no win since 1992’s “Indochine,” while Spain’s “Sirât” and Tunisia’s harrowing “The Voice of Hind Rajab”— a real-life Gaza tale —l urk as emotional. Nominees were locked in January 22, with first voting wrapping earlier; bookies see value in Brazil for an upset payout, but Trier’s buzz makes Norway the smart play amid 86 global submissions. This race highlights Academy evolution—prioritizing universal stories over borders. Bettors, watch for cross-category bleed: a win here could boost Picture odds for underdogs like “Sentimental Value.”

Oscars 2026 Betting Guide: Summary

Buckle up for the gladiatorial clash of the 98th Oscars! Paul Thomas Anderson’s epic “One Battle After Another” isn’t just leading the pack; it’s stampeding toward Best Picture, with the maestro himself a lock at 1.07 odds for Best Director after 11 heartbreaking near-misses. Leonardo DiCaprio, the eternal survivor, channels revolutionary rage in a role that screams comeback— could this finally etch another notch on his mantle?

Over in Best Actress, Jessie Buckley’s as Shakespeare’s grieving wife in “Hamnet” radiates inevitability at 1.07 odds, her raw emotion cutting deeper than any swordplay. But don’t sleep on the duel of the decade: Timothée Chalamet, Hollywood’s golden boy, squaring off against DiCaprio in a battle of eras. Indeed youthful fire versus grizzled legend. Chalamet’s “Marty Supreme” might be the hit carrying his Oscar hopes. To make up your mind check up the Oscar Winners Before 2026.

March 15 looms like a high-stakes poker final table: envelopes rip open, cheers erupt, tears flow, and one film claims the throne. Will Anderson’s curse shatter, DiCaprio defy the fade, or a wildcard rewrite the script? Your move, bettors — lock in now, because there is always a room for one more twist.

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