With Donald Trump making a stand over Colin Kaepernick and his National Anthem protest, rather than addressing the numerous issues with his plans for the country should he win the US general election, it is easy to dismiss him as a laughable orangutan in a wig playing to the peanut gallery, but with the odds on Trump winning remarkably short should we be worried the nightmare may yet come true? This is, after all, 2016…..
The superb comic genius of Gene Wilder is taken from us and yet Donald Trump lingers on. Just how much worse can 2016 get? No, no don’t tell me. I know already. Yes, November could conceivably see the tiny hands of Donald Trump (a “whiny little bitch” according to Bill Maher) grasp the reigns of power in the United States, placing his demure digits on the nuclear trigger, but let’s face it, how realistic is that? Odds on Trump winning show a tight contest, but in a two horse race is that reliable?
US Election Heats Up
- First debate looms
- September 26th
- Hofstra University
- Will Hillary throw it?
Sure, most of the time online bookmakers like the world renowned Bet365 get things pretty much spot on, providing the right odds for those that like to bet on sports in the US and around the world is, after all, their bread and butter, however sometimes they can be almost suspiciously wrong. The odds quoted on Brexit right up till the last moment were either the worst miscalculation since the Charge of the Light Brigade or a cynical con with plausible deniability built in. Odds on Trump may be as flawed.
Pre-Debate Odds On Trump & Clinton A Bargain At Bet365
Certainly one does need some faith in the US electorate to scoff so derisively at the odds on Trump winning the presidency, 2016 has already provided so much bad news that it all but tempts fate to do so. That said people in the US gambling laws of common sense will keep Trump from winning are probably right. The US may have elected liars, philanderers and B-movie actors before, but they’re not insane enough to vote Trump into office, no one really thinks he’ll win. Which is in of itself a problem.
Odds on Trump & Clinton
- Democratic Party
- Hillary Clinton – 2/7
- Republican Party
- Donald Trump – 11/4
Democratic candidates win when the turn out is high, if everyone feels Hillary Clinton is a dead certainty they’ll stay home and not vote feeling the job is being handled by others (this is what happened in the UK Brexit vote if we’re honest about it). A low turn out would give the odds on Trump at Bet365 et al some legitimacy, however coincidental that might be, and it is against that low turn out the Clinton campaign is fighting, and to win that fight they’ll probably take a leaf out of Obama’s book.
Do The US Electorate Need A Wake-Up-Call Loss From Clinton In The Debates?
Obama’s performance in the first debate against Mitt Romney in Denver was, in the context of the organized dog fighting we call politics, a wholesale disaster. For just long enough it seemed Mitt could win, just long enough to galvanize the Democratic base, to worry people just enough that the nightmare could come true to ensure they campaigned hard and kept the turn out high. The odds on Trump winning the election may be quite low, but the odds of him winning that first debate are probably quite high.
Naturally it could all go the other way, Hillary’s emails could trip her as she runs for the White House, (well that and the fact she’s not very likeable) but whilst Bet365 may have the odds on Trump at 11/4 and those on Clinton at 2/7 the US Presidential Election has a few more surprises to come, and for those in the US gambling news on the-day-after-the-night-before will be of a Trump victory it could be just how misleading those numbers are, well, that and how flustered Hillary might act in the debates….