President Trump Meets with the Taoiseach of Ireland – Image source: The White House from Washington, DC / Public domain via Wikimedia Commons
The recent Dial vote has reached a deadlock, keeping the door open for next Irish Taoiseach predictions. Three candidates are in contention including Mary Lou McDonald, Micheal Martin, and the caretaker Leo Varadkar. Electing New Taoiseach is all about power, and as for now, Mary Lou McDonald enjoys the most support.
The magic number for winning a majority government in Ireland is 80 seats. However, none of the three big parties came anywhere close to that figure on February 08 general election. So, what is the way out? According to online sportsbook news in Ireland, the only way is through forming a coalition. Previous governments have been forged similarly, but it takes a while to get there. In 2016, it took 70 days for the government to be formed and for Enda Kenny to be re-elected as Taoiseach, leading a minority cabinet of Fine Gael and independents.
This time it is a bit more complicated opening the door for very interesting next Irish Taoiseach predictions. Mainly, because Irish politics are no longer a two-party system, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Instead, there are three big parties with the breakthrough by the rise of Sinn Fein. We explore the likely scenarios, but there is much uncertainty with all negotiations taking place behind closed doors.
Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald won most votes in Dail
Sinn Fein had an impressive performance in the recent general elections, but it remains unclear whether it will end up is the new government. Although Sinn Fein won 37 seats and won the highest number of first preference votes, they need a coalition of 80 seats to form a government. Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald was able to collect most votes in Dail recently, with 45. That makes her the frontrunner as per next Irish Taoiseach predictions, with 4.5 odds at 22BET Sportsbook.
Sinn Fein has reached out to some of the smaller parties including the Greens, Labour, Solidarity People Before Profit and the Social Democrats. However, the entire coalition of the small left-wing parties is not enough for a working majority. The other remaining option is a coalition between Sinn Fein and Fine Gael or Fianna Fail. However, no signs yet for such a coalition to be formed, but everything is possible in politics with a bit of pragmatism.
Fianna Fail’s Micheal Martin is working on a couple of options
Fianna Fail faced a dramatic drop in seats, but they managed to win 38, one seat more than Sinn Fein. Their leader Michael Martin polled 41 votes in Dail recently. He repeatedly said Fianna Fail will not work with Sinn Fein. However, he is holding the door slightly open to the prospect of a new government with Sinn Fein.
According to online sportsbooks in Ireland, there is another option that might ensure Micheal Martin to be elected as Taoiseach with 1.33 odds. He might convince Fine Gael to join a new government with the help of the Green Party. In this respect, the Green Party will get three cabinet seats, with six seats each for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. However, the negotiations are underway, and it remains to be seen whether this will happen in the near future.
Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar will likely go into opposition
Fine Gael has been ruling the government for nine years. They are currently the third-largest party with 35 seats in the parliament. Most likely a coalition with Sinn Fein is off the table, as their leader Lea Varadkar has repeatedly stated he will not enter a government with Sinn Fein. With a poor election result, it is likely that Fine Gael will go into opposition. As for now, Mr. Varadkar is the acting Taoiseach until a deal is agreed for the new government. He will probably leave his position soon, despite the 9 odds.
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