Bookmakers and pollsters in the US currently share a similar thought about President Trump’s reelection chances. He has slipped to the underdog status and favored by Trump Electoral College odds to lose heavily in November.
The Presidential election is still several months away and the race is highly competitive in many states. But, the numbers are very worrying to President Trump’s campaign and supporters. Lately, NY Times reported that all polls in the country show President Trump is significantly trailing his Democratic rival, Joe Biden. President Trump’s advisers are disturbed about his standing in four battleground states but also in other states with big electoral votes such as in Texas!
If the Trump electoral college odds are really taking the downward angle, that means the President will either have to focus on a comeback, as it happened in 2016 or he will try to hold on with a very thin victory. Either option remains in the air with the ongoing demonstrations and social unrest. Not to mention the economy that will stay at the bottom low for a while.
It is hard to be optimistic these days right! Well, it is reasonable. A few months ago the 2020 Presidential Election odds on Donald Trump were soaring. Now he is struggling to show strength. Let us put it in numbers (in other words let us see the Electoral College projections). As online sportsbook news sites in the US suggest, the battleground is just getting wider.
What is the Electoral College?
It means very simply that the US citizens do not elect the US President and vice president directly. Instead, they are chosen through a process called the Electoral College. First, the US citizens cast their votes on the first Monday of November in their states, then each state gets a number of electors based on its representation in Congress. There are 538 electoral votes, and the candidate who gets more than half (270 votes) becomes the US President.
Trump Electoral College odds favor his loss
Looking back to 2016, Donald Trump won 306 electoral votes. However, for the upcoming election cycle, there are two scenarios supported by online sportsbooks in the US. Both of them are about Trump losing to Joe Biden. It goes in line with CNN’s Harry Enten’s conclusion that “if the election were held today Biden is ahead in more than enough states to capture 270 electoral votes”.
The first scenario is about Trump’s chances in the four swing states (Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). These states have a total of 76 electoral votes, and should you read our analysis about the 2020 swing states odds, Republicans are slightly behind. For example, Trump won Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, but he has a negative favorability rating of around 10%. Should he lose two states, he might get between 251-269 electoral votes with +332 odds at 22BET Sportsbook.
The other scenario is about Trump facing trouble in one or more states of Arizona, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas. These states have a total of 97 electoral votes. If all of them flip to Democrats, Trump Electoral College odds are +300 for winning just between 201-250. It will be a complete disaster for Republicans.
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