Image source: Flickr
This November the US will vote to choose between Donald Trump, the current President, and Joe Biden, the former-vice President. It’ll be a dour struggle. But it won’t be for the most votes, not really. You can bet on the 2020 US popular vote at online betting sites in the US like Bovada, but remember that’s not how it works. In US Democracy, it’s perfectly possible to lose the popular vote and still retain the White House, and perhaps odds, that how it is supposed to work.
People tut at the US Electoral College. They fuss that it might be undemocratic. That the majority should win. They neglect to note that very few democratic governments anywhere in the world have a true majority at the ballot box. Far too many people fail to vote for that to happen. The US is no different. Mathematically it’s perfectly possible, of course, but turnouts being what they are, it’s highly unlikely. Indeed, you can bet on the 2020 US popular vote not being all that popular.
You can take advantage of US gambling laws to bet on the 2020 US popular vote. But don’t get confused. Turnout in 2016 was around 56%. 100,000,000 voters just didn’t bother fulfilling their civic duty. It won’t be any better in November, however much Michael Moore might wish otherwise. A popular vote then will tell you who has gained the most votes on the day, but unless that’s around 90% it still won’t be a majority of Americans. It won’t even be a majority of voters.
US 2020 Presidential Election odds
- Michelle Obama – 45/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 45/1
- Mike Pence – 45/1
- Hillary Clinton – 20/1
- Joe Biden – 13/10
- Donald Trump – 5/6
Real Majorities A Rare Beast In Democracy
Actual majorities are massively rare. You either have to be Saddam Hussain and threaten to shoot people not voting for you, or be Jacinta Arden and leap tall buildings in a single bound. Some might say the best way to cure this is simply to make voting mandatory. Raise the turnout till you can bet on the 2020 US popular vote being reflective of an actual majority. It’s what they do in Australia. Turnout there is over 90%. However, without such high participation the Electoral College is here to stay.
It is, of course, unfortunate that not everyone wants to see more people vote. It is not in the strategic interests of the Republican Party, for instance. The President himself has stated that were more people to vote “you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again”. Which is probably true. This means whilst you can bet on the 2020 US popular vote at Bovada and other online sportsbook sites in the US, there is an alliance against it replacing the Electoral College.
2020 US Popular Vote Odds
- Republican Candidate – 11/4
- Democrat Candidate – 1/4
Bet On The 2020 US Popular Vote At Bovada Today
Don’t bet on the 2020 US popular vote being any more than a side show. Odds on the Republicans voting away the Electoral College are nil. The odds on the Democrats doing it are about the same. This is, after all, the system that got each and every one of them elected. It would be like turkeys voting for Thanks Giving. It’s a stumbling block electoral reform hits just about everywhere. Those with the power to change the system don’t because it gave them the power.
This time round Joe Biden is currently leading in the odds for a bet on the 2020 US popular vote by quite a margin. If it were a bet on sports in the US it would be a massacre in the offing. Biden gets 1/4 to Trump’s 11/4. But this is politics, and if you check the odds on who’ll actually win the White House under the US system of democracy Donald Trump is still winning. He gets 5/6 to retain the Presidency whilst Joe has to settle for a distant 13/10. The rules might be wrong but they’re still the rules.
We take a look at why you shouldn’t bet on the 2020 US popular vote being indicative of the need for electoral reform.