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Election Odds And Recent Events Favor Teresa May In The UK

Theresa May in blue

The terrorist attack on the Ariana Grande gig in Manchester has thrown the snap election cycle into turmoil as campaigning gets suspended and the more cynical among us finally admit that it’s all over for Jeremy Corbyn. Certainly he has defied the election odds before to become leader of the Labour party but a win on June 8th looks like a big ask and no longer the sort of thing the sensible would wager on at Bet365.

UK General Election

• Greens – 1000/1
• UKIP – 1000/1
• Lib Dems – 300/1
• Labour – 9/1
• Conservative – 1/20

Suspending campaigning was the only decent thing to do. There’s nothing worse than watching politicians clambering over the dead to win a vote, but with barely two weeks left till polling day the timing couldn’t have been worse for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party who had finally appeared to be gaining a little traction, and seemed set to capitalize on the bizarre confusion Teresa May had spread with cost-of-care policy which alone had shortened the election odds on the Liberal Democrats.

Her u-turn on the so called ‘dementia tax’ made her the first Prime Minister in living memory to change a manifesto promise prior to the election, something Corbyn and co could have made much hay with had Salman Abedi not struck killing so many young, happy people in the Manchester Arena. Now they’ve no room to do so as the Conservatives, so derided for repeating “strong & stable” till they were hoarse, now turn the focus onto law & order, something that will quickly rebalance the election odds.

UK gambling laws Permit Betting On Politics

Teresa May’s time at the Home Office prior to becoming Prime Minister will stand her in good stead in the wake of this tragic and barbaric attack and with election odds at Bet365 now giving her a massively certain 1/20 on getting the most seats in the next parliament the 9/1 to be found on the Labour Party seems almost token by comparison. Not that the bookies haven’t got it wrong in the past. Anyone remember Brexit or the Scots Referendum or even Corbyn’s rise to power? But they’re probably right this time.

UK general election

The Labour Party now has odds of just 9/1 to secure the most seats in Parliament (photo: euronews.com)

If you’ve been keeping up with the election odds are that you’ve already spotted the continual efforts by the Labour Party to keep the focus on inequality and the lax levels of investment in public services and social care, but the events in Manchester put the focus squarely on security and foreign policy with the tragedy and death toll removing most inequality from view as we are all equally sickened by this nightmare. They say politics is a sport and if you like to bet on sports in the UK backing Corbyn now would be like backing Aston Villa to win the FA Cup next year.

Bet365 Has All The UK Election Odds

Labour Vote Percentage

• 40+% – 16/1
• 35-40% – 6/1
• 30-35% – 6/4
• 25-20% – 13/8
• -20% – 20/1

Now were this anywhere else you’d think that stuck between these two rather bland choices – one a school prefect that’s taken herself too seriously, the other a substitute Geography teacher who got lost on his way to work – the Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron would be having an easy time of it. Alas the third party in the UK betrayed most of its principles in a coalition with the Conservatives and are still fighting for credibility, let alone a seat at the table. Suspension of campaigning does them no good either.

May 22nd saw the Conservative lead cut to just 13%, barely half it had been the previous week, and the media had finally begun to treat Corbyn like a politician and not like something they’d walked into the house on the sole of their shoe, now the Tories have been gifted a reprieve and human tragedy onto which they can latch. Anyone in the UK gambling news coverage of Manchester and its aftermath doesn’t play well for the Conservatives hasn’t seen the election odds, and just how far the bookies like Bet365 think it’s all over for Corbyn.

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