Macron in 2017 – Image source: Remi Jouan / CC BY via Wikimedia Commons
While French Presidential elections 2022 odds currently show Macron as favourite, a recent poll conducted by Ifop-Fiducial has issued Emmanuel Macron a warning. In what would be a repeat of 2017, It suggests Macron and his arch-rival Marine Le Pen will have to contest a second round. This time, however, he would win the head-to-head by a much narrower margin.
The first round will take place between 8 and 23 April 2022. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, there will be a second two weeks later. When Macron crushed Le Pen in 2017, it looked as if she had taken her last shot at the Presidency. But with Macron now deeply unpopular and French party politics in a state of upheaval, her popularity has risen. And with Macron’s approval rating at only 38 percent, could she be worth betting on in the run for the Elysée? Check out online sportsbooks in France if you’re thinking about betting on the 2022 French election results.
Changes in the political landscape
Le Pen is itching for a rematch against Macron, who in 2017 presented himself as a champion of progressive and pro-European values against the dangers of nationalism. She has benefited politically as centrist Macron has destroyed the traditional two-party system of socialists vs conservatives, the left-right split being replaced by one between nationalists and globalists. And some believe this restructuring of politics gives her every chance of beating Macron. They draw a comparison with Boris Johnson, the Conservative UK prime minister who pushed through Brexit with the support of former Labour voters in the North of England and Scotland. She has already won support from some on the left, including the far-left France Insoumise party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
You can read more about the 2017 elections here Bet on Marine Le Pen Winning the French Presidency. French Presidential elections 2022 odds still favour Macron, but this time, things could be different. Le Pen has tapped into the anger of France’s anti-establishment yellow vest protesters, many of whom share her views on issues ranging from the dangers of mass immigration to the dominance of Paris over the rest of France. The movement has sparked a political crisis for Macron’s government. In an attempt to stop the growing anger among protesters, and sympathy for them amongst French voters, Macron has already walked back the fuel tax rises that triggered the movement, and offered other concessions including a cut to pension tax and a rise in the minimum wage.
French Presidential elections 2022 odds predict a re-run of 2017
According to the poll, it would be neck and neck in the first round, at 26-28 percent each. The second round would see Macron on 55 percent of the vote to Le pen’s 45 percent. Le Pen is certainly getting closer to the prize, and with things as they are, could well close the gap further. Currently, 22BET sportsbook are giving odds on Macron at 1.8, and Le Pen at 5.5.
There are of course other candidates who are being given an outside chance. Francois Fillon 11 of Les Républicains was Prime Minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, and intially considered favourite in 2017. That is until allegations emerged that his wife had earned about €500,000 as his assistant in parliament, with no evidence she had done the work. Fillon claimed he could prove the allegations wrong, but refused to be ‘tried by media’. After a financial investigation was started, Macron overtook him in the first round polls, and his race was over.
Jean-Luc Melenchon 13, of La France Insoumise, is the leader of the hard left. At the first presidential debate for 2017, Melenchon was the only candidate to bring up the issue of climate change. The big issues of economy, war, terrorism and migration had pushed out climate concerns. He cast himself as the most environmentally friendly candidate on the ballot, and the message resonated.
Anne Hidalgo, Mayor of Paris, recently said she would not run for the Elysée, yet still has odds of 13. So keep an eye on online gambling sites in France to keep yourself updated on any changes between now and 2022.