US Presidential Election Odds Shift Ahead Of New Hampshire

US Presidential Election Odds Shift Ahead Of New Hampshire

New Hampshire Primary Odds

• Democrats
• Sanders 1/16
• Clinton 7/1

The 2016 Iowa Caucus was, in the end, a sort of political Kansas City Shuffle as we all looked on transfixed by the battle for the Republican side of the aisle, it was the Democrats that produced the real drama of the evening, and changed the US presidential election odds going into the second stop on the route to the White House; New Hampshire.

The Iowa Caucus is the first real-world test for a candidate and we all waited with baited breath to see if the bombastic populism of Donald Trump would translate into actual votes, and wondering just how far behind the eclipsed Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson would be. Of course those expectations were based on the polls, and if there’s a lesson we should have learned by now it’s that in a US presidential election odds are the polls will be completely wrong.

The somewhat chaotic scenes played out across the TV networks, and if you like to bet on sports in the US a punt on how many times CNN’s Wolf Blitzer will introduce a reporter in some far flung county of New Hampshire who will instantly say “This is what American democracy looks like” could keep things interesting as the campaign moves North East, having surprised us with a result closer than we touted by the pollsters who’d help create the US presidential election odds at the bookies.

Ted Cruz, utilizing what the TV anchors kept called a “good ground game”, was always going to be a strong contender amongst the religious of Iowa, his good Christian credentials something he played on time and time again in comparisons with Donald Trump (who was, we were told, playing an “air game”) and as the results rolled in, almost from the off, he took and held the lead. Perhaps the bigger story for Republicans is that Marco Rubio did far better than anyone expected.

Ted Cruz Defies US Presidential Election Odds To Take Iowa

Marco Rubio Iowa Caucus 2016 US elections odds

Marco Rubio in Iowa did surprisingly well (Photo: Flickr)

With the polls showing him nowhere Marco Rubio getting 23.10% of the vote at least allowed the establishment of the Republican party see some rays of hope through the gloom of the “insurgent” candidates doing so much better. Donald Trump who’d been touted to run away with it, just managed to stay ahead of Rubio on 24.31%, which is still a political miracle given how unorthodox a candidate he is, and the hugely right-wing religious fruit cake left over from the 1950s that is Ted Cruz got 27.65%.

New Hampshire Primary Odds

• Republicans
• Trump 4/9
• Rubio 11/4
• Cruz 7/1

Of course you don’t need to win Iowa to become President, but it does help, US presidential election odds have always favored those that do, which explains that whilst so many eyes were focused on the wig-on-a-mouth that is Donald Trump and the pointy-nosed wingnut that is Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton found themselves in a close quarters knife-fight that made the Republican contest seem almost calm and measured by comparison.

It was always going to be close, and in Iowa, given it’s demographics, Hillary Clinton had the better of the US presidential election odds going into the contest, she was expected to win, something she eventually did, but by a margin so small you’d have a hard time putting a cigarette paper between the two results. So if you were a Democrat in the US gambling laws of political convention would see one or the other get a clear leading mandate, you’d be very much mistaken.

Clinton And Sanders Too Close To Call

Bernie Sanders, the closest thing America has to a socialist, which is an insult leveled at anyone in US politics that is slightly less right wing than Ghengiz Khan, came within a whisker of a surprise win in Iowa, his call for a “revolution” apparently gaining traction with younger voters disillusioned by the mainstream political candidates. When the dust settled and a final tally was arrived at it really couldn’t have been realistically closer, 49.86% Clinton vs Sanders on 49.57%, a “Virtual tie” Sanders said.

Bernie Sanders Iowa Caucus 2016 US elections odds

It’s a virtual tie between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton (Photo: Flickr)

This means that going into New Hampshire both sides of the aisle face a new reality. Donald Trump is not unbeatable, and Bernie Sanders isn’t a crank easily shrugged off. Ted Cruz won’t be gambling news of another win will come his way, his religious fervor isn’t as attractive in the North East, which is why US presidential election odds have his chances of winning in NH at Bet365 are just 7/1, despite his win in Iowa, with Marco Rubio ahead of him on 11/4 and Donald Trump still leading the way on 4/9.

Whilst Trump weighs up how much of a threat Rubio might be, Hillary Clinton is aware of precisely how much of a threat Bernie Sanders is, and as they squabble about debates and town hall meetings, she can’t detract from the fact he’s almost certainly going to win, the bookies rating him at 1/16 versus her rather shame-faced 7/1. Then again, as US presidential election odds seem based on the polls, and the polls seem invariably wrong, perhaps either of the 7/1 shots (or Rubio at 11/4) are a good bet.

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