Will New Hampshire Really Wager On Walker In 2016?

Jeb Bush seems to have the Republican candidacy locked up, but there are still challengers running for the nomination and some of them might want to be Vice-President

The New Hampshire Primary is still over a year away, scheduled for the 9th of February 2016, but with the US election campaign now starting to rumble off the starting line with the building momentum of a jugganaut people are already focusing in on the polls gambling news from this bellweather state will give some sign of which way people are going to jump 12 months from now, this is especially true when it comes to individual party candidates.

This is partly because of the bloodletting that the Republican competition for the candidacy caused last time round, a process that was notable only for a divisive splitting of the party that was in stark contrast to democrat unity behind the incumbent, yet seemingly unpopular, President Obama, however there are other reasons, and most of these have to do with money, the central pillar of US politics in these cynical modern times of ours.

It costs $1bn or thereabouts to run for President, at least it did in 2012, and there's a good chance that massive price tag will be even bigger this time round, and the ability to raise those sort of funds is a deal-breaker when it comes to choosing a candidate. The Democrats might have the evergreen Hillary Clinton to take up the reins from Obama almost unchallenged in popular perception if not in behind the scenes politics, but the Republican field is a mixed bag at best.

Donors looking to put their cash behind the next potential president actually want a candidate with the potential to get there, so early indications of popular support or grassroots popularity are being sought by each of the Republican hopefuls in order to garner those big backers. That's why Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is making sure everyone sees this week's NH1 Pulse poll that put him top in New Hampshire now that Mitt “The Loser” Romney has sensibly dropped out of the race.

Last Loser Leaves, Luckily

Of course with Romney gone and the stench of political failure emanating from the Bush family being slightly masked by misleading midterm election results, the Republicans are still quietly casting around for an alternative to the, frankly, tainted legacy of two previous Presidents called Bush. Whilst the adult antics of her husband might reflect badly on Hillary, and they do, no one that likes to bet on sport in the US is seriously wagering Jeb Bush can use that against her without drawing ire from observers and comments on his own family, which would be worse, much worse.

Republicans Heir-Apparent Has Rivals
• Will anyone challenge Jeb Bush?
• Can they raise the cash his family can?
• Bet365 offers odds on the candidates

Bill might have put a cigar where only the TSA dare probe, but George W sent men to war and lots of them died. The US electorate, even the right-wing US electorate, hasn't forgotten the sacrifices they were called upon to make and are likely to be wary of voting for someone associated with the causes of that terrible price they were asked to pay. That's why despite his being the obvious choice, the Republicans are still looking for alternatives, from Scott Walker to Marco Rubio, but can they attract the money Bush can?

One doesn't spend time in the White House without making friends, enemies and connections and that the Bush family can call in some favors is undoubted, these almost certainly translating into Jeb having a bigger war chest than any other Republican front-runner at this point. He placed second in the New Hampshire poll and that bodes well for him, and his fund raising efforts, even if it perhaps doesn't for the Republican odds on victory, Bet365 still giving Hillary, and thus the democrats, +120 to Jeb's +333.

Despite the poll Scott Walker is way out at +2500 which is the same odds as Bet365 will give you on Joe Biden being the next President. Joe won't be the next President, even if he buys a shotgun, and it seems as unlikely that Scott Walker can turn some momentary popularity into a White House win. The real challengers for the Republican shot at the title are still Rubio, Christie and Paul, none of whom are particularly appealing to a party looking for unity.

Racing For White House Or Ticket Slot?

Marco Rubio initially looks quite promising but has somewhat damaged himself by denying climate change and the science behind it which is a shame given it's conclusive and only questioned by supposed “scientists” in the pay of right-wing American organizations, something the public is all too well aware of, and his then seeming attempt to barter some quid pro quo over life starting at conception was hugely bizarre. He's edged up closer at +1200 but with his mouth that might not last.

Christie is a larger than life character who's been making all the right moves but suffers from those he's made in the past. The Bridgegate scandal doesn't help him, and his state's economic issues and seemingly cavalier attitude to US gambling laws may mean the big man from New Jersey is fighting a losing battle, with some already saying he's aiming for a vice-presidential slot. In the race for the Presidency he's out at +1800 alongside the Democrats' Elizabeth Warren.

Rand Paul is a member of the Tea Party movement which tells you everything you need to know. His wild-eyed form of conservatism might play well to an extremist base within the party, and it does, but to the voters they'll need from the center his attitudes on “personhood” beginning at fertilization are unlikely to win him much support, this is why he languishes alongside Christie at +1800, another possible vice-president in 2016 although that would be Palin-sized risk for a candidate.

There's a good chance one of these three will turn up on the ticket in 2016 and whether the Republicans like it or not the chances are it'll be alongside Jeb Bush. That's why the republicans are at +125 to the Democrat's -175. The party could, of course, ditch this heir-apparent but that would turn the convention into a form of bingo boutique branches of Macy's would think gaudy and unsightly. The US election of 2016 might still be a way off but the fight for the right to party for their party has long since begun amongst the hopefuls.