Politics

2020 US Senate Election Odds Shift in Democrats’ Favor

  • There are four Republican Senators and one Democrat at risk
  • Trump’s administration will certainly have a big effect
  • Political experts suggest the race is around 50-50
2020 US Senate election odds
Image source: Flickr

2020 Senate election odds are very close, with the race at a dead heat before the US voters head to the polls a few months later. Republicans have been holding the lead for the entire 2019 and they are still holding it as for now. But, the margin is rapidly narrowing down in Democrats’ favor.

For starters, the 100-seat Senate is currently controlled by Republicans with 53 seats. Democrats have 45, and two seats are occupied by independents. There are a total of 35 seats up for reelection on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will take place on the same day as the US Presidential election. Mathematically speaking, Republicans will be defending 23 seats, while Democrats will only need to guard 12. Thus, should Democrats keep their seats and flip four they will restore their power in the upper chamber.

Most online sportsbooks in the United States including Bovada, still give an edge to Republicans with -150 at 2020 US Senate election odds. Whereas, Democrats are behind with +115. But, before you predict the winner think about the following two questions. What is going on in the battleground states and who are the key Senators at risk? Besides, how will the Trump-Biden race influence their relative parties? We try to give you a hand hoping you can come up with the right prediction.

Four Republican Senators and one Democrat at risk

Most online sportsbook news sites in the United States have identified up to 17 states with a possible drastic change. However, it is fair to say that only five will likely flip, four of them currently controlled by President Trump’s allies, and one by a Democrat. The one state that will be likely lost to Republicans is Alabama. Either Sen. and Attorney General Jeff Sessions or ex-Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville will face Democrat Doug Jones. And, according to Alabama Daily News poll, both Sessions and Tuberville lead by a large margin.

The Republican states at risk are Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. Arizona Martha McSally is trailing to former NASA astronaut Mark Kelly with nine points, as recent polls show. Susan Collins of Maine faces the toughest reelection battle against Sara Gideon. Democrat John Hickenlooper will probably win against the Republican freshman Cory Gardner in Colorado. Besides, a neck-and-neck race is on the way between Sen. Thom Tillis and his opponent Cal Cunningham in North Carolina.

2020 US Senate election odds
Biden in January 2020 – Image source: Flickr

The Trump-Biden Factor

We can hypothesize that if President Trump surprisingly loses, and Democrats’ Joe Biden wins, Trump will take his allies down with him. Looking at Trump’s 2020 swing states odds, Democrats are slightly the favorites. What is more, Trump electoral college odds do not look that good. But, so much can happen from now and until November. The performance of the economy and how the protests and social unrest will unfold will be key factors.

The popularity of Trump’s administration will certainly have a big effect on each Senator’s performance in the election. Therefore many Republican Senators have been very careful about their ties to President Trump. Some have already disentangled themselves from President Trump in swing states. However, you should keep in mind that if Biden loses, Democrats might find themselves one seat in shortage of taking over the upper chamber.

Will it be Red or Blue Wave?

If we take a look at the 2018 House of Representatives midterm elections, many experts have made correct predictions. As for 2020 US Senate election odds, political experts predict neither a Red Wave nor a Blue Wave. Instead, they are projecting a balanced political equilibrium throughout Congress. That means the race remains basically around 50-50, and it can easily go either way. Should you rely on your instincts? Probably yes!

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